Sunday, February 27, 2005

My Oscar Picks

Only a few hours left til The Oscars and boy howdy am I excited. This is the superbowl for us movie geeks and even if you're not a huge fan of all the nominees it's great fun to watch (except when they have Savion Glover do improv dance tributes to nominees, that was a scary year and let's hope the improvography is behind us).

So just for kicks and giggles here are my guesses for who'll win and a list in my opinion of who actually deserves to win.

Best Original Screenplay
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Hotel Rawanda
The Incredibles
Vera Drake

Who Deserves it: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Charlie Kaufman
Who Will Win: Charlie Kaufman
The academy will feel bad about not nominating it for Best Picture and will give Sunshine the award in this category. Of course that said I think it deserves this award.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries

Who Deserves it: Finding Neverland, David Magee
Who Will Win: Sideways, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor
Finding Neverland was so layered, taking an actual relationship J.M. Barrie had with a young woman and her 4 boys and showing us his possible inspirations for the story of Peter Pan. It's such an engrossing story, even if it's facts are not quite right. But hey it's just a movie, not a biography.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virgina Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okanedo, Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer

Who Deserves it: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Who Will Win: Laura Linney, Kinsey
Cate Blanchett is a truely amazing actress, she's great in everything, but this I think is her best performance to date. In The Aviator she made the over the top personality, Katherine Hepburn, believable and even sympathetic. Which is a real task in my opinion cause I hate Katherine Hepburn with a firey passion.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda, The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways (I can't believe Lowell is nominated for an Oscar, yuck!)
Jaimie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen, Closer

Who Deserves it: I'll just say Morgan Freeman, because out of all the nominees he comes closest to deserving the award, though this is pretty run of the mill acting from the man who is always cast as the older sage type.
Who Will Win: Alan Alda, The Aviator
Another servicable, rangeless, performance from Alda, whom I almost never like. The academy never misses a chance to give the supporting actor Oscar to an actor whose body of work they admire, whether or not they actually think the nominated performance deserves the win or not. Well here grandpa Alan we know you are close to death so here's your Oscar. We'd hate for you to die without us showing our undying love.

Best Actress
Anette Benning, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Who Deserves it: Hilary Swank
Who Will Win: Hilary Swank
Okay, I'll admit it, I'm conflicted here. I'm a huge fan of Kate Winslet and think she was terrific in Sunshine but Hilary was slightly better in Million Dollar Baby. If I may borrow a comment I heard recently, very few actresses get the role of a lifetime and Hilary's had two. I can't wait to see what's next for her.

Best Actor
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Jaimie Foxx, Ray

Who Deserves it: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Who Will Win: Jaimie Fox, Ray
Don't get me wrong, Jainie Fox was near unrecognizable in Ray but he was very over the top. Anyone whose ever done any acting will tell you it's a lot easier to be over the top, than it is to play a role dead on straight which Clint Eastwood has done with precision.

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Mike Liegh, Vera Drake

Who Deserves it: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Who Will Win: Clint Eastwood Million Dollar Baby
I didn't want to see this movie. I rarely like the movies he acts in and don't usually like the movies he directs. They are typically hard edged things with stories and characters that keep me at arms length, not this one however. Million Dollar Baby starts of fun and then takes you in a direction you never saw coming. Clint Eastwood deserves this award and it would be ashame if he loses.

Best Picture
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby

Who Deserves it: Million Dollar Baby
Who Will Win: Million Dollar Baby
This is a category I'm not very sure about, you've already heard my Million Dollar Baby rants and it definatly deserves this award, but I think out of all the nominees I enjoyed Finding Neverland best. It had the most I was able to relate to and just really grabbed hold of me. Now that said, over all, Million Dollar Baby is best.

Now I bet every one of my guesses is wrong, but what's the point of betting on a horse race if you know which one will win?

Enjoy the Oscars,

1 comment:

SamuraiFrog said...

Interesting choices, most of which were right (Laura Linney, though?). I think there should be a list of movies that should have been nominated but weren't. "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" completely deserved to be nominated for Best Picture. The Academy again ignored Uma Thurman in "Kill Bill," as well as David Carradine's great acting (and the whole movie, actually). "Mean Girls" was one of the smartest adapted screenplays I've ever seen. Kerry Washington in "Ray" was far better than Cate Blanchett's Katharine Hepburn impression. And even though you didn't mention it, where was the Best Makeup nomination for "Hellboy"?